Behind the “involution” of photovoltaics: the outbreak, chaos and evolution of n-type technology

As photovoltaic technology fully enters the n-type era, the market share of n-type modules has expanded rapidly. According to statistics from Sobi Photovoltaic Network, the global shipment of n-type modules in 2022 was only about 20GW, while this figure increased to about 121GW in 2023, a five-fold increase. It is expected that by 2024, the shipment of n-type modules will further climb to 400GW, accounting for more than 80% of the global market. Among them, n-type TOPCon modules are expected to account for more than 70%, officially becoming the mainstream of the market, and the development speed of n-type technology has far exceeded people's expectations. Looking back on the development history of the photovoltaic industry, it can be clearly seen that technological iteration is advancing at an astonishing speed. After 2017, PERC took over BSF batteries and increased its market share from 15% to 91.2% in five years; and it took only two years for n-type to replace p-type technology. Behind the industry's more "involution" is the inevitable law of scientific and technological development and the market's unremitting pursuit of higher efficiency and lower cost technologies. At the 2023 "Light Energy Cup" New Year's Eve Sharing Conference hosted by Sobi Photovoltaic Network, Song Dengyuan, a leader in n-type technology and CTO of Yida Xinneng, pointed out that there is no so-called "ultimate technology" in the photovoltaic industry. No technology will stagnate, but will continue to develop in constant innovation and iteration, and there will be no end. Today, we can't help but think: What stage has n-type technology reached? How long will the "flowering period" of TOPCon last? What exactly is the next generation of photovoltaic technology? According to the technology life cycle (TLC) theory, the development of a technology usually goes through four stages: research and development, growth, maturity and decline. At present, photovoltaic n-type technology is in the golden stage of transition from growth to maturity, the market scale continues to expand, the number of companies entering the market continues to increase, and the application scenarios are becoming increasingly diversified.